I spill a variety of phrases about Denominator Blindness in “How To not Make investments.” The alternatives to exhibit horrible examples of denominator blindness are endless. The most recent instance — and one of the vital absurd ones you’ll ever see — comes from someone who ought to know higher, Senator Ron Johnson.
Here’s what the Senator needed to say:
Ron Johnson: “In 56 years of monitoring Tylenol, there have been 39,540 demise reported to FAIRS. That’s 706 per yr. For ivermectin – bear in mind the one which they mentioned was so harmful? – in 29 years reporting, 493 deaths, 17 a yr.” 1
It’s a basic denominator blindness instance, since you are NOT seeing the whole variety of doses in query. By solely displaying the variety of deaths (the numerator) however not the dimensions of the info set (the denominator), we see an apparent try and mislead the viewer.
To do a good “Apples to Apples” comparability, the very first thing you would want is the variety of doses of every drug which can be consumed yearly:
“Greater than 25 billion acetaminophen doses are bought within the US yearly.” That’s in 2023; this yr, the quantity is over 28 billion.” (See GMI, JAMA, and ATrain)
And Ivermectin?
“Roughly 450,000 outpatient prescriptions for ivermectin had been stuffed in the USA in 2023.” (See Cognitive, ClinCalc).
In different phrases, there are roughly 50,000 occasions extra doses of Acetaminophen, the energetic ingredient in Tylenol, consumed annually than doses of Ivermectin.
If as few doses of Tylenol had been consumed annually as Ivermectin, there can be one Acetaminophen demise each 72 years.2
And, if as many doses of Ivermectin as Tylenol had been consumed annually, the physique depend within the U.S. for the antiparasitic drug can be over 850,000 deaths yearly. That may be like dropping the whole inhabitants of a metropolis like Indianapolis or San Francisco – yearly.
At all times listen when individuals deliberately misrepresent numbers to deceive you. They’re as much as no good, and infrequently have a hand in your pocket…
Beforehand:
What Kills You and Your Investments (Might 21, 2014)
You Are Worrying In regards to the Unsuitable Issues (October 22, 2014)
Don’t Endure From Denominator Blindness (October 14, 2015)
Shark vs. Mosquito Deaths (April 26, 2018)
Shark Assaults Illustrate an Investing Downside (January 28, 2019)
Denominator Blindness, Shark Assault version (February 5, 2019)
Your Probabilities of Dying (July 25, 2019)
__________
1. I assume that “FAIRS” was a typo, and right here is meant to be FAERS: The FDA’s Antagonistic Occasion Reporting System.
2. Tylenol is the best-known model of the drug Acetaminophen; I exploit the 2 names interchangeably.
