Final month the Australian labour market went backwards. That pattern is now consolidating and the coverage makers appear to be lastly getting their want – to place an growing variety of Australian staff out of labor. Two years in the past, the official unemployment charge was 3.5 per cent. Now it’s 4.5 per cent. That’s an additional 153 thousand staff who at the moment are jobless. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) launched the most recent labour pressure information at the moment (October 16, 2025) – Labour Power, Australia – for September 2025, which reveals that the expansion within the labour pressure is outstripping employment development with the consequence that unemployment has risen somewhat sharply in September – by 0.2 factors. Underemployment additionally rose by 0.2 factors and there at the moment are 10.4 per cent of obtainable labour not being utilized in one type or one other. In the meantime, in the event you ring the technocrats on the RBA they may let you know that now we have adjusted near full employment. And for that they need to be sacked for incompetence in public workplace. It’s ludicrous to speak about Australia being near full employment. There may be substantial scope for extra job creation given the slack that’s current.
The abstract seasonally-adjusted statistics for September 2025 are:
- Employment rose 14,900 (0.1 per cent).
- Full-time employment fell 8.7 thousand (0.1 per cent).
- Half-time employment rose 6.3 thousand (0.1 per cent).
- Unemployment rose 33,900 (5.2 per cent) to 684,000.
- The unemployment charge rose 0.2 factors to 4.5 per cent.
- The participation charge rose 0.1 level to 67 per cent.
- The Employment-population ratio was regular at 64 per cent.
- Month-to-month hours labored rose 9 million (0.5 per cent).
- Underemployment rose 0.2 factors to five.9 per cent (rising 37 thousand to 909 thousand).
- The Broad Labour Underutilisation charge (the sum of unemployment and underemployment) rose 0.4 factors to 10.4 per cent.
- Total, there are 1,592.9 thousand individuals both unemployed or underemployed.
The ABS press launch – Unemployment charge as much as 4.5% – famous that:
The seasonally adjusted unemployment charge rose to 4.5 per cent in September, up from a revised 4.3 per cent in September …
That is the very best seasonally adjusted unemployment charge recorded since November 2021 …
There have been 34,000 extra unemployed individuals in September …
The underemployment charge rose by 0.2 proportion factors to five.9 per cent in September …
The underutilisation charge, which mixes the unemployment and underemployment charges, rose by 0.4 proportion factors to 10.4 per cent.
Abstract
1. In some unspecified time in the future in an financial cycle, when fiscal drag begins to chew and rates of interest are too excessive, unemployment and underemployment begin to speed up upwards – it appears to be like like that’s now taking place.
2. Two years in the past, the official unemployment charge was 3.5 per cent. Now it’s 4.5 per cent. That’s an additional 153 thousand staff who at the moment are jobless.
3. And with the rising underemployment, the broad labour underutilisation ratio has risen 0.8 factors since late 2022. There may be now 10.4 per cent of the accessible and keen labour provide being wasted – that’s, 1,592.9 thousand individuals who wish to work extra are both unemployed or underemployed. A stunning indictment of our coverage makers.
Employment development rose modestly in September
- Employment rose 14,900 (0.1 per cent).
- Full-time employment fell 8.7 thousand (0.1 per cent).
- Half-time employment rose 6.3 thousand (0.1 per cent).
The next graph reveals the expansion in complete, full-time, and part-time employment for the final 24 months.
The next desk reveals the shifts during the last 6 months which helps to see the underlying pattern.
The Employment-to-Inhabitants ratio offers a measure of the state of the labour market that’s impartial of the provision shifts within the labour market (pushed by the shifts within the participation charge).
The underlying working age inhabitants grows steadily whereas the labour pressure shifts with each underlying inhabitants development and the participation swings.
The next graph reveals the Employment-Inhabitants ratio was regular at 64.2 – which offers some counter to the opposite variables which are indicating a scientific slowdown is underway.
The following graphs present the common month-to-month change in complete employment (first graph) and full- and part-time employment (second graph).
For complete employment the month-to-month common adjustments had been:
- 2022 – 44.8 thousand
- 2023 – 30.8 thousand
- 2024 – 32.6 thousand
- 2025 up to now – 12.9 thousand (and falling)
Month-to-month hours labored rose 9 million (0.5 per cent) in September 2025
A reversal from final month – however hardly any development in any respect.
The next graph reveals the expansion in month-to-month hours labored for the final 24 months, with the straight line being a easy linear regression to point pattern.
Unemployment rose 33,900 (5.2 per cent) to 684,000 in September
The official unemployment charge rose by 0.2 factors to 4.5 per cent.
It’s now above the pre-GFC low and can proceed to rise below present coverage settings.
The next graph reveals the evolution of the official unemployment charge since 1980.
Broad labour underutilisation – up 0.4 factors in September
- Underemployment rose 0.2 factors to five.9 per cent (rising 37 thousand to 909 thousand).
- The Broad Labour Underutilisation charge (the sum of unemployment and underemployment) rose 0.4 factors to 10.4 per cent.
- Total, there are 1,592.9 thousand individuals both unemployed or underemployed.
The next graph reveals the evolution of underemployment and the Broad labour underutilisation charge since 1980.
Teenage labour market – lack of full-time jobs
Whereas complete employment rose – there was a lack of high quality in September.
- Complete teenage (15-19) employment rose 12.3 thousand (1.4 per cent) in September 2025.
- Full-time employment fell 1.6 thousand (-0.8 per cent) – second successive month.
- Half-time employment rose 13.8 thousand (2.1 per cent) – mainly reversing final month’s decline.
The next desk summarises the shifts within the teenage labour marketplace for the month and during the last 12 months.
To place these adjustments right into a scale perspective (that’s, relative to measurement of the teenage labour pressure) the next graph reveals the shifts within the Employment-Inhabitants ratio for youngsters.
The Teenage Employment-Inhabitants ratios and their month-to-month adjustments in September 2025 had been:
- Males: 47.5 per cent – up 0.4 factors.
- Females: 52.9 per cent – up 0.9 factors.
- Complete: 50.1 per cent – up 0.6 factors.
Conclusion
My customary warning to take care in decoding month-to-month labour pressure adjustments – they will fluctuate for quite a few causes and it’s imprudent to leap to conclusions on the again of a single month’s information.
- As I famous above – there comes a stage in an financial cycle the place unemployment begins to speed up upwards as employment development weakens and may now not soak up the expansion of the labour pressure. That appears to now be in practice.
- The RBA governor and her Board will probably be completely happy that greater than 150 thousand staff additional at the moment are jobless than this era 2 years in the past. That has been her purpose for a number of years now.
- Underemployment can be on the rise – by 0.2 factors in September – as full-time job alternatives turn into scarce.
- It stays a proven fact that with 10.4 per cent of obtainable labour not getting used it’s ludicrous to speak about Australia being near full employment. There may be substantial scope for extra job creation given the slack that’s current.
That’s sufficient for at the moment!
(c) Copyright 2025 William Mitchell. All Rights Reserved.