Statistics Canada’s labour power survey, launched this morning, confirmed the addition of 83,000 jobs in June—breaking a stretch of minimal employment development since January.
The unemployment price additionally edged down 0.1 share level to six.9%, after reaching a near-decade excessive final month. Economists had anticipated it to carry at 7% or rise to 7.1%. The employment price ticked as much as 60.9%.
Youth employment remained a weak spot within the June knowledge, nonetheless. The unemployment price for returning college students aged 15 to 24 rose to 17.4%—the best for June since 2009, excluding the pandemic. Youthful teenagers have been hardest hit, with these aged 15 to 16 going through a 27.8% jobless price, up 3.3 share factors from final yr.
Half-time positions accounted for the majority of June’s positive aspects, with a rise of 70,000 jobs. Employment additionally rose in each the non-public sector (+47,000) and public sector (+23,000).
Many of the positive aspects have been concentrated in wholesale and retail commerce (+34,000), well being care and social help (+17,000), and manufacturing (+10,000). The agriculture sector noticed a modest decline of 6,000 positions, whereas employment was “little modified in different industries,” the company famous.
Common hourly wages rose 3.2% year-over-year to $36.01, easing barely from Could’s 3.4% improve.
BMO’s Benjamin Reitzes was happy with this morning’s knowledge, however has a noticeable caveat: “One controversial blemish is that many of the positive aspects have been in part-time jobs. Regardless of the way you slice issues, this report is materially higher than anticipated.”
Tariff threats and CPI dangers anticipated to maintain BoC on maintain
Though this morning’s job numbers surpassed expectations, economists are viewing the info by a wider lens—one that features current tariff threats and broader financial dangers.
RBC’s Nathan Janzen views this morning’s knowledge as largely constructive, although not sufficient to dispel the coolness in comparison with final yr—particularly with current tariff threats looming giant.
“Canadian labour markets are nonetheless considerably weaker than they have been a yr in the past with weak point concentrated in sectors and elements of the nation extra delicate to worldwide commerce disruptions,” he wrote. “And commerce dangers stay with Canada added to a rising record of nations going through threatened new tariff hikes from the U.S. administration on August first.”
Reitzes, in the meantime, factors to ongoing financial uncertainty as a test on this morning’s sturdy jobs knowledge, which he believes might draw some skepticism. Whereas he sees the financial system as “hanging in there for now, pending the results of ongoing commerce negotiations,” he doesn’t anticipate the Financial institution of Canada to behave, given Canada’s sticky underlying inflation.
“Barring a pointy decline in underlying inflation in subsequent week’s June CPI report (which appears to be like unlikely), the power in at the moment’s jobs knowledge and the just lately heightened uncertainty on the commerce entrance doubtless preserve the BoC on the sidelines when it meets later this month,” he wrote.
CIBC’s Katherine Choose affords a extra definitive tackle the BoC’s upcoming resolution, noting that the complete impression of tariffs has doubtless not but proven up within the knowledge.
“The Financial institution of Canada will use this report as a cause to pause once more in July,” she wrote. “Nonetheless, this survey is risky and will simply reverse June’s strengths within the coming months, as we suspect that the complete tariff harm hasn’t totally been captured within the knowledge but.”
Following the discharge, Canada’s 5-year bond yield rose 5 foundation factors to three.00%, whereas the 10-year yield climbed seven foundation factors to three.48%.
Unemployment price by age group
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Final modified: July 11, 2025