Final week, the – 2025 Canadian federal election – was held and the Liberal Occasion received for the fourth consecutive time securing 169 seats (within the 343-seat Home of Commons), simply wanting a majority. Additionally they received the favored vote (43.7 per cent of the vote – up 11.1 per cent), which was the primary time that they had achieved that since 2015. The Opposition Conservative Occasion chief misplaced his personal seat within the election. On January 7, 2025, nationwide polling noticed help for the Conservatives of round 47 per cent and help for the federal government round 20 per cent. By the point the ballot got here, that had shifted dramatically in favour of the federal government. In between, got here Trump. The UK Guardian evaluation (March 19, 2025) – Canada’s Liberals heading in the right direction for political resurrection amid commerce conflict, polls present – mentioned the shift “has little precedent in Canadian historical past, reflecting the outsized function performed by an unpredictable US president”. To some extent, the craziness of the US political state of affairs at current additionally impacted on the – 2025 Australian federal election – which was held on Saturday (Might 3, 2025). The incumbent authorities, which was properly down within the opinion polls earlier than Trump took energy, received in a landslide attaining the very best two-party most well-liked final result in Australia’s electoral historical past. The parallels with the Canadian final result are robust regardless of the totally different voting methods in each international locations. Furthermore, the conservative Liberal-Nationwide Coalition in Australia, the dominant get together within the Publish-WW2 period has been diminished to being little greater than a far Proper populist get together. Just like the Canadian state of affairs, the Opposition chief additionally misplaced his seat, which was the primary time that has ever occurred in Australia. So Trump is undermining the very actions he’s attempting to advertise. However what may be very clear is that Australia is nothing just like the US, regardless of some commonalities (language – form of!).
How loopy is the state of US politics proper now?
Reply: Very.
I awoke early on Sunday morning (Might 4, 2025) and skim the ABC information report – Donald Trump posts AI picture of himself because the pope forward of Catholic Church conclave – and questioned if I used to be studying a satirical story within the spirit of ‘America’s Best Information Supply’ – the Onion.
This picture, posted by Trump himself on his personal Twitter clone, summarises simply how demented the entire US state of affairs has grow to be.
America’s early historical past as a revolutionary nation wants revival given the destruction the present Administration is inflicting.
I’m no supporter of the Papacy however it’s inconceivable within the wake of the previous pope’s latest demise, {that a} nationwide chief would suppose it acceptable to fiddle with AI to solid themselves on this means.
It indicators some deep psychological fissure is at work.
Whereas Australia was not being declared the 51st or maybe 52nd state (given aspirations over Canada) of the US by the US president, the craziness entered the Australian electoral atmosphere as properly.
When Trump put out his plan to “degree” the world of genocide in Gaza and create a “riviera beneath American management”, the conservative Opposition chief (Peter Dutton) praised the plan and mentioned that Trump was a “large thinker and a deal maker”.
Dutton additionally claimed that the Arab nations ought to resettle the Palestinians after the US and Israel clears them out of Gaza.
Even the influential “Australian Jewish foyer” known as Trump’s plan a “crazy proposition”, which amounted to “ethnic cleaning” (Supply).
Dutton, considering that Trumpism would attraction to the households within the outer metropolitan areas the place the cost-of-living disaster was most obvious, then appointed a loud-mouthed colleague because the Shadow Minister of Authorities Effectivity (SMOGE), to filter out the general public service businesses, mirroring Elon Musk’s ridiculous however damaging campaign via Washington.
The SMOGE was to chop “wasteful spending” and he mentioned this new function would see 41 thousand public servants sacked and those who remained would now not be allowed versatile working preparations.
There have been statements about public servants being lazy and abusing work-from-home guidelines.
Ladies voters who weren’t already alienated quickly joined the ranks of those that have been.
Versatile working preparations have been excellent for ladies specifically.
The Opposition claimed that analysis proved work-from-home preparations lowered productiveness, when, in actual fact, the alternative is supported by the intense analysis proof.
SMOGE would additionally purge so-called cultural Marxism and woke agendas within the public service.
The SMOGE Minister offered the foreword to a newly revealed guide, which demanded Australians realise that an (Supply):
… insidious cultural Marxism isn’t just the barbarian on the gates, however it’s in actual fact contained in the gates. It’s wreaking havoc all over the place, undermining the West’s Judeo-Christian heritage, a heritage which has given us essentially the most affluent society the world has ever recognized, thus placing in grave hazard the hard-fought freedoms we take as a right.
The newly appointed SMOGE MP was then uncovered sporting a Trump MAGA cap and claimed it was all a joke.
It might need had the impact of signalling a ‘Make America Go Away’ message as a result of the Opposition conservatives quickly came upon that its lurch into Trumpism was poisonous in Australia however by then it was too late.
Message acquired – and the polls turned laborious in opposition to them.
Nevertheless, these characters can’t assist themselves and at varied occasions throughout the 35-day election marketing campaign they lurched again into the Far Proper messaging with assaults on indigenous Australians, assaults on younger individuals, assaults on girls, and extra.
Additionally they signalled they’d flip to nuclear power regardless of it being apparent that the price can be prohibitive relative to an extra funding in renewables and that the Earth can be fried earlier than the brand new reactors have been constructed and made operational.
Australians have an extended dislike of the nuclear business and the promise to buck that detest was imposed on the Coalition by the junior companions – the Nationals – who symbolize the well-to-do farming communities and at the moment are the epitome of Far Proper loopy.
They pressured the unsalable nuclear possibility as the worth of them staying silent a few zero emissions goal by 2050.
None of them believed within the local weather difficulty and a few really have been caught out telling followers that they have been for ‘drill, child, drill’ insurance policies.
However in popping out with the nuclear plans, the Opposition seemed more unusual than they’ve ever seemed and that’s actually saying one thing.
They couldn’t have designed and executed a “please don’t dare elect us” message any higher.
The blue go well with sporting Opposition males (the get together is dominated by males) – of their Trump look-alike outfits – have been declared unelectable by the Australian voters.
What all of the evil woke Marxists have been as much as on Saturday is anyone’s guess, however however the relentless messaging about these Marxists skulking round in shadows able to do us all hurt, the Labor authorities created historical past on Saturday and as a first-term authorities really elevated their majority.
A uncommon feat.
To place the remainder of this submit in context, I used to be comfortable when the Labor Occasion retained authorities on Saturday even because the landslide of their favour emerged.
However that’s within the context of they’re the lesser evil.
It’s clear that Australia (and doubtless Canada though I’m not an knowledgeable on that nation) is just not America.
We outrightly reject American cultural imperialism.
I recall some years in the past when neoliberalism was taking maintain right here that the Pentecostal lot tried to make these non secular TV crusaders from the US viable voices on Australian tv.
We had midnight to daybreak non secular applications for a short time.
They disappeared as shortly as they got here as no-one actually may very well be bothered watching comedy at the moment of day.
There isn’t any thirst in Australia for the forms of narratives that appear to elect Presidents within the US.
We simply suppose they’re loopy stuff.
To grasp the subsequent graph, readers ought to concentrate on the actual voting system we use in Australia.
Many international locations, together with Canada use the ‘First-past-the-post’ system the place a candidate is elected in the event that they obtain essentially the most votes in a single depend.
So with many candidates, a profitable candidate would possibly get say 20 per cent total and nonetheless win.
The issue then is 80 per cent of voters didn’t need that individual elected.
To beat that difficulty, the – Electoral system of Australia – makes use of preferential voting, the place, within the case of the decrease Home of Representatives, voters should “mark a choice for each candidate on the inexperienced poll paper” (Supply).
So, main votes are solid for the voters most well-liked candidate.
However the voter additionally nominates or ranks the opposite candidates.
If on the first vote there isn’t a absolute majority achieved, the Electoral Fee then excludes the least widespread candidate and their preferences are distributed to the remaining candidates.
A technique of attrition happens till there are solely two candidates left and the profitable one is the candidate with absolutely the majority.
The so-called ‘Two Occasion-Most popular’ (TPP) measure is thus the ultimate distributed final result.
That’s what the graph exhibits for the nation as an entire and recognises the dominance of the 2 main events – the Labor Occasion and the Coalition (which is a mix).
The graph exhibits this statistic for each federal election since 1949.
Saturday’s election gave Labor get together the biggest TPP final result and the Conservatives the bottom TPP final result since that knowledge was out there.
The decrease home includes 150 seats in Australia.
Going into the 2022 federal election, the conservatives have been in authorities with 77 seats and misplaced workplace at that election, gaining solely 58 seats and a TPP vote of 47.87 per cent (after a main vote of simply 35.7 per cent).
Whereas the 2025 election outcomes are usually not absolutely finalised, on the time of writing, the conservatives have misplaced an extra 18 seats and had a TPP of 45.29 per cent (with a main vote of 32 per cent).
The Labor authorities improved from 77 seats in 2022 to now holding (to date within the depend) 86 seats.
First-term governments simply don’t enhance majorities traditionally.
The Oppositional chief misplaced his seat as did various touted future leaders, resulting in what the press is now calling a management vacuum.
There was one headline on this morning’s Age newspaper (Might 5, 2025) – The Liberal Occasion doesn’t want a renovation. It’s a knockdown rebuild job – a ‘knock down’ means it’s nugatory.
The writer of that article was a former conservative get together federal treasurer.
He admitted that the Liberal Occasion “is each organisationally moribund and dysfunctional” and assessed Saturday as “one of many extra lamentable election nights since Federation” (Federation was in 1901).
The purpose is that the as soon as dominant Liberal-Nationwide Coalition has over the course of two elections been diminished to a rump as a Far Proper populist get together with little credible coverage narrative, who tried to win the election with a string of Trump-like tradition and hate statements.
Australia is just not America.
We don’t fall for that form of narrative.
Australian politics has been recast over final weekend.
The disarray that the Liberal-Coalition now finds itself in is breathtaking.
Already, the recriminations have begun and there are influential components demanding the Coalition go extra Trump-like (presumably they noticed some Marxists lurking in alleys or someplace).
There isn’t any actual management left within the Liberal get together.
The proportion of girls within the get together is low and the voting girls dislike the misogyny of the blue fits.
The youth of Australia dislike the conservatives who’re mainly local weather change denialists writ giant.
Is there a lesson for the remainder of the world right here?
We now have two observations within the latest interval – Canada and Australia.
Whereas the electoral methods are totally different, the resonance between the 2 outcomes is excessive.
It’s believable that Trump and his crazies are literally offering fertilisation for a return of social democratic political forces.
I’m not saying the Australian Labor Occasion is a fascinating social democratic drive.
However they resemble one, even when they’ve been contaminated with neoliberalism.
The conservatives have gone to date to the Proper that that they had made themselves irrelevant regardless of their dominant historical past.
May the good socialist and social democratic events of Europe, for instance, see an analogous development by not kowtowing to the Trump bullying?
I’m not satisfied but.
My concern is that the authoritarian sentiment is extra rooted in European international locations than it’s within the English-speaking international locations (excluding the US).
The efficiency of AfD within the final German elections tells me that the far Proper is something however lifeless in that nation.
The far Proper didn’t win a seat within the 2025 Australian election and gained round 8 per cent of the entire main vote.
Conclusion
Two good election outcomes – Canada and Australia – reveal how remoted the US has grow to be within the English-speaking world.
Trump would get nowhere right here.
That’s sufficient for at this time!
(c) Copyright 2025 William Mitchell. All Rights Reserved.