The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) launched the newest labour power knowledge at the moment (July 17, 2025) – Labour Drive, Australia – for June 2025, which reveals that lastly, the slack that the mix of the fiscal austerity and the excessive rates of interest has created is feeding into the labour market as employment progress slows and the unemployment price rises (by 0.2 factors) to 4.3 per cent. The array of indicators now recommend that there’s a systematic slowdown occurring within the labour market. Unemployment has now risen by 59.5 thousand or 0.4 factors during the last 6 months because the fiscal place stays tight and the central financial institution holds rates of interest at elevated ranges. That is pointless coverage sabotage – inflation started declining in December 2022 and is now at comparatively secure and low ranges – there is no such thing as a motive for the federal government to be working contractionary coverage stance. Underemployment additionally rose 0.1 level. The broad labour underutilisation price (sum of unemployment and underemployment) rose to 10.3 per cent (up 0.3 factors). It stays a undeniable fact that with 10.3 per cent of accessible labour not getting used it’s ludicrous to speak about Australia being near full employment. There may be substantial scope for extra job creation given the slack that’s current.
The abstract seasonally-adjusted statistics for June 2025 are:
- Employment rose 2,800 (0.0 per cent) – full-time employment fell 38.2 thousand (-0.4 per cent) and part-time employment rose 40.2 thousand (0.9 per cent).
- Unemployment rose 33,600 (5.4 per cent) to 659,600.
- The unemployment price rose 0.2 factors to 4.3 per cent.
- The participation price rose by 0.1 level 67.1 per cent.
- The Employment-population ratio was regular on 64.2 per cent.
- Month-to-month hours labored fell 19 million (-0.9 per cent).
- Underemployment rose 0.1 level to six per cent (rising by 16.9 thousand to 915.1 thousand).
- The Broad Labour Underutilisation price (the sum of unemployment and underemployment) rose 0.3 factors to 10.3 per cent.
- Total, there are 1574.7 thousand folks both unemployed or underemployed.
The ABS press launch – Unemployment price rises to 4.3% – famous that:
This month we noticed the unemployment price rise 0.2 share factors, pushed by a 34,000 enhance within the variety of unemployed folks …
This month we noticed a lower in full time hours labored, down 1.3 per cent, related to a 0.4 per cent fall in full time workers …
The underutilisation price, which mixes the unemployment and underemployment charges, rose by 0.3 share factors to 10.3 per cent.
Abstract
1. It now seems just like the stagnating output aspect of the financial system is lastly feeding into the labour market.
2. The massive drop in full-time employment is a foul signal.
3. There was a 0.3 factors rise in labour underutilisation – 0.2 factors from unemployment and 0.1 factors from underemployment. So there may be now 10.3 per cent of the accessible and keen labour provide being wasted.
4. The one caveat I’ve is that participation remains to be rising, which is often not one thing one observes when there’s a main slowdown underway.
Employment progress slows to shut to zero in June 2025
- Employment rose 2,800 (0.0 per cent).
- Full-time employment fell 38.2 thousand (-0.4 per cent).
- rose 40.2 thousand (0.9 per cent).
The next graph exhibits the expansion in whole, full-time, and part-time employment for the final 24 months.
The next desk exhibits the shifts during the last 6 months which helps to see the underlying pattern.
Employment has elevated by 61 thousand, whereas the labour power has elevated by 150.3 thousand on the again of underlying inhabitants progress regardless of a 0.1 fall in participation.
Consequently, official unemployment has risen by 59.5 thousand.
So we are actually getting confirmed proof of a slowdown within the labour market.
The Employment-to-Inhabitants ratio gives a measure of the state of the labour market that’s impartial of the availability shifts within the labour market (pushed by the shifts within the participation price).
The underlying working age inhabitants grows steadily whereas the labour power shifts with each underlying inhabitants progress and the participation swings.
The next graph exhibits the Employment-Inhabitants ratio was regular at 64.2 – which gives some counter to the opposite variables which can be indicating a scientific slowdown is underway.
The following graphs present the common month-to-month change in whole employment (first graph) and full- and part-time employment (second graph).
For whole employment the month-to-month common adjustments had been:
- 2022 – 44.8 thousand
- 2023 – 30.8 thousand
- 2024 – 33 thousand
- 2025 up to now – 15.1 thousand
Month-to-month hours labored fell 0.95 per cent in June 2025
Month-to-month hours labored fell by 18.8 million hours (0.95 per cent) indicating that the labour market has stalled.
The next graph exhibits the expansion in month-to-month hours labored for the final 24 months, with the straight line being a easy linear regression to point pattern.
Unemployment rose 33,600 (5.4 per cent) to 659,600
With whole employment rising by simply 2,000 and the labour power rising by 35.6 thousand, official unemployment rise by 33.6 thousand.
The unemployment price rose 0.2 factors to 4.3 per cent.
The next graph exhibits the evolution of the official unemployment price since 1980.
Broad labour underutilisation – up 0.3 factors to 10.3 per cent in Might
- Underemployment rose 0.1 level to six per cent (rising by 16.9 thousand to 915.1 thousand).
- The Broad Labour Underutilisation price (the sum of unemployment and underemployment) rose 0.3 factors to 10.3 per cent.
- Total, there are 1574.7 thousand folks both unemployed or underemployed.
The next graph exhibits the evolution of underemployment and the Broad labour underutilisation price since 1980.
Teenage labour market – deteriorates sharply
- Whole teenage (15-19) employment fell by 12.6 thousand (-1.5 per cent) in June 2025.
- Full-time employment fell by 14.8 thousand (-6.8 per cent).
- Half-time employment rose 13.6 thousand (0.03 per cent).
The next desk summarises the shifts within the teenage labour marketplace for the month and during the last 12 months.
To place these adjustments right into a scale perspective (that’s, relative to dimension of the teenage labour power) the next graph exhibits the shifts within the Employment-Inhabitants ratio for youngsters.
The Teenage Employment-Inhabitants ratios and their month-to-month adjustments in June 2025 had been:
- Males: 47.2 per cent unchanged
- Females: 50.6 per cent -1.6 factors
- Whole: 48.9 per cent -0.8 factors
Conclusion
My customary warning to take care in deciphering month-to-month labour power adjustments – they will fluctuate for numerous causes and it’s imprudent to leap to conclusions on the again of a single month’s knowledge.
- The array of indicators now recommend that there’s a systematic slowdown occurring within the labour market.
- Unemployment has now risen by 59.5 thousand or 0.4 factors during the last 6 months because the fiscal place stays tight and the central financial institution holds rates of interest at elevated ranges.
- That is pointless coverage sabotage – inflation started declining in December 2022 and is now at comparatively secure and low ranges – there is no such thing as a motive for the federal government to be working contractionary coverage stance.
- Underemployment additionally rose 0.1 level. The broad labour underutilisation price (sum of unemployment and underemployment) rose to 10.3 per cent (up 0.3 factors).
- It stays a undeniable fact that with 10.3 per cent of accessible labour not getting used it’s ludicrous to speak about Australia being near full employment. There may be substantial scope for extra job creation given the slack that’s current.
That’s sufficient for at the moment!
(c) Copyright 2025 William Mitchell. All Rights Reserved.