The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) launched the most recent labour power information at present (June 19, 2025) – Labour Power, Australia – for Might 2025, which revealed that the unemployment price remained unchanged at 4.1 per cent for the second consecutive month. There was a small lower in total employment (-2,500) which was offset by a 0.1 level decline within the participation price, The web impact was a small decline in official unemployment (-2,600) and a secure unemployment price. Whether or not the autumn in employment and participation is a sign of a big slowdown within the coming months is unclear at this stage. Month-to-month information fluctuates up and down. There was a 1.3 per cent rise in month-to-month hours labored and important development in full-time employment which blurs a straightforward interpretation of the opposite modifications. Underemployment additionally fell 0.1 level development. The broad labour underutilisation price (sum of unemployment and underemployment) fell to 10 per cent (down 0.1 level) on the again of the declining underemployment. It stays a proven fact that with 10 per cent of accessible labour not getting used it’s ludicrous to speak about Australia being near full employment. There may be substantial scope for extra job creation given the slack that’s current.
The abstract seasonally-adjusted statistics for Might 2025 are:
- Employment fell 2,500 (=0.02 per cent) – full-time employment rose by 38.7 thousand (0.4 per cent) and part-time employment fell 41.1 thousand (-0.9 per cent).
- Unemployment fell 2,600 (-0.02 per cent) to 618.3 thousand.
- The unemployment price was regular on 4.1 per cent.
- The participation price fell by 0.1 level 67 per cent.
- The Employment-population ratio fell 0.1 level to 64.2 per cent.
- Month-to-month hours labored rose 25.4 million (1.3 per cent).
- Underemployment fell 0.1 level to five.9 per cent (falling 28.4 thousand to 896.5 thousand).
- The Broad Labour Underutilisation price (the sum of unemployment and underemployment) fell 0.1 level to 9.9 per cent.
- General, there are 1514.8 thousand individuals both unemployed or underemployed.
The ABS press launch – Unemployment price regular at 4.1% in Might – famous that:
The seasonally adjusted unemployment price remained at 4.1 per cent in Might …
Regardless of employment falling by 2,000 individuals this month, it’s up 2.3 p.c in comparison with Might 2024, which is stronger than the pre-pandemic, 10-year common annual development of 1.7 per cent …
Hours labored elevated 1.3 per cent in Might, following decrease ranges within the earlier two months coinciding with the Easter vacation interval and extreme climate disruptions.
Abstract
1. Ordinarily, a fall in employment coupled with a decline in participation is a nasty signal that job alternatives are declining and individuals are dropping out of the labour power in frustration.
2. Nevertheless, the robust efficiency of full time employment meant that working hours elevated over the month, which blurs the unfavourable information.
Employment development barely unfavourable in Might
- Employment fell 2,500 (=0.02 per cent).
- Full-time employment rose by 38.7 thousand (0.4 per cent).
- Half-time employment fell 41.1 thousand (-0.9 per cent).
The next graph exhibits the expansion in complete, full-time, and part-time employment for the final 24 months.
The next desk exhibits the shifts over the past 6 months which helps to see the underlying development.
Employment has elevated by 151.5 thousand, whereas the labour power has elevated by 176.1 thousand on the again of underlying inhabitants development and a 0.1 level improve in participation.
In consequence, official unemployment has risen by 24.6 thousand.
So a average slowdown has been evidenced over the past 6 months.
The Employment-to-Inhabitants ratio gives a measure of the state of the labour market that’s unbiased of the provision shifts within the labour market (pushed by the shifts within the participation price).
The underlying working age inhabitants grows steadily whereas the labour power shifts with each underlying inhabitants development and the participation swings.
The next graph exhibits the Employment-Inhabitants ratio fell 0.1 level in Might 2025 and is 0.3 factors beneath its most.
The following graphs present the common month-to-month change in complete employment (first graph) and full- and part-time employment (second graph).
For complete employment the month-to-month common modifications have been:
- 2022 – 44.8 thousand
- 2023 – 30.8 thousand
- 2024 – 33 thousand
- 2025 to date – 18.3 thousand
Month-to-month hours labored rose 1.3 per cent in Might 2025
Month-to-month hours labored rose by 25.4 million hours (1.3 per cent) on the again of the full-time employment development, which makes it arduous to find out the general path of the labour market.
The next graph exhibits the expansion in month-to-month hours labored for the final 24 months, with the straight line being a easy linear regression to point development.
Unemployment fell by 2,600 in Might
With complete employment falling by 2,500 and the labour power falling by 5 thousand (given the 0.1 level decline in participation), official unemployment fell by round 2,600 to 618.3 thousand.
Whereas the numbers are small, there was some rise in hidden unemployment because of the participation price decline.
The unemployment price was regular at 4.1 per cent.
The next graph exhibits the evolution of the official unemployment price since 1980.
Broad labour underutilisation – 9.94 per cent in Might
- Underemployment fell 0.1 level to five.9 per cent (falling 28.4 thousand to 896.5 thousand).
- The Broad Labour Underutilisation price (the sum of unemployment and underemployment) fell 0.1 level to 9.9 per cent.
- General, there are 1514.8 thousand individuals both unemployed or underemployed.
The next graph exhibits the evolution of underemployment and the Broad labour underutilisation price since 1980.
Teenage labour market – employment development falters
- Whole teenage (15-19) employment fell by 5.1 thousand (-0.6 per cent) in Might 2025.
- Full-time employment fell by 0.4 thousand (=0.2 per cent).
- Half-time employment fell by 4.7 thousand (-0.7 per cent).
The next desk summarises the shifts within the teenage labour marketplace for the month and over the past 12 months.
To place these modifications right into a scale perspective (that’s, relative to measurement of the teenage labour power) the next graph exhibits the shifts within the Employment-Inhabitants ratio for youngsters.
The Teenage Employment-Inhabitants ratios and their month-to-month modifications in Might 2025were:
- Males: 47.2 per cent -0.3 factors
- Females: 52.6 per cent -0.4 factors
- Whole: 49.8 per cent -0.4 level
Conclusion
My customary warning to take care in deciphering month-to-month labour power modifications – they’ll fluctuate for a lot of causes and it’s imprudent to leap to conclusions on the again of a single month’s information.
- The unemployment price remained unchanged at 4.1 per cent for the second consecutive month. There was a small lower in total employment (-2,500) which was offset by a 0.1 level decline within the participation price.
- The web impact was a small decline in official unemployment (-2,600) and a secure unemployment price.
- Whether or not the autumn in employment and participation is a sign of a big slowdown within the coming months is unclear at this stage. Month-to-month information fluctuates up and down. There was a 1.3 per cent rise in month-to-month hours labored and important development in full-time employment which blurs a straightforward interpretation of the opposite modifications.
- Underemployment additionally fell 0.1 level development. The broad labour underutilisation price (sum of unemployment and underemployment) fell to 10 per cent (down 0.1 level) on the again of the declining underemployment.
- It stays a proven fact that with 10 per cent of accessible labour not getting used it’s ludicrous to speak about Australia being near full employment. There may be substantial scope for extra job creation given the slack that’s current.
That’s sufficient for at present!
(c) Copyright 2025 William Mitchell. All Rights Reserved.