Over the past 20 years the variety of passengers flying out and in of UK airports has grown dramatically, from round 220 million to 300 million right this moment. The UK, or extra precisely London, stays among the many best-connected locations on the earth. However with this authorities in the midst of rolling out one other enormous enlargement in airports – sufficient to maneuver 100 million extra passengers – it’s price wanting again to see who has actually benefited from 20 years of aviation progress.
NEF evaluation utilizing the Nationwide Journey Survey and Civil Aviation Authority Passenger Survey exhibits that UK-resident frequent flyers had been chargeable for 63% of the brand new passenger visitors seen over the previous 20 years. An additional 13% was captured by rare UK-resident flyers, and 24% by overseas residents (lots of whom are additionally frequent flyers). Remarkably, the variety of UK residents not flying in any respect every year truly elevated over the interval.
However to completely perceive what’s happening, we now have to go deeper. Since our first report on a frequent flyer levy in 2015, NEF and Attainable have popularised the thought of focusing on coverage on the frequent flyer: people who take three or extra return flights a 12 months. However in 2025, this definition is insufficient.
Among the many frequent flyers, our evaluation identifies a brand new sub-group: “ultra-frequent” flyers. These folks take six or extra return journeys a 12 months, and they’re the most important drivers of the UK’s progress in passenger numbers. Extremely-frequent flyers make up lower than 3% of the UK inhabitants however take 30% of all journeys made by UK residents. Due to their fast progress, we estimate that UK ultra-frequent flyers captured 39% of passenger progress over the previous 20 years. Throw overseas residents into the combination and it’s probably that ultra-frequent flyers captured virtually half of all new air journey capability added to the UK since 2006.
Determine: Extremely-frequent flyers are a tiny proportion of the UK inhabitants, however are chargeable for a big chunk of air journeys and emissions
UK-resident air passengers grouped by their flight frequency, share of journeys, and share of greenhouse gasoline emissions in 2019
Source: NEF evaluation of the CAA Passenger Survey (2019)
By means of deep-dive evaluation of the Civil Aviation Authority’s passenger survey, we will discover out extra concerning the ultra-frequent flyer:
- Their family incomes are effectively above that of the common air passenger (round 37% increased on common).
- They’re way more prone to fly within the luxurious lessons (round twice as prone to fly enterprise or top quality).
- They’re extra prone to fly on short-haul routes that may very well be performed by prepare (sometimes flying to locations round 20% nearer to house than the common passenger).
- Most of their journey is for leisure, not enterprise (we estimate post-pandemic, round one-third of their flights are for enterprise functions).
- Because of the above, they’re consuming vastly greater than their justifiable share of the aviation sector’s carbon price range (round eight instances their equal share if the sector’s emissions had been unfold equally throughout the UK inhabitants).
Among the many favoured locations of ultra-frequent flyers are locations already accessible through direct prepare, similar to Edinburgh, Glasgow and Amsterdam. Additionally frequent are locations that might be a lot simpler to succeed in by prepare, with the correct rail coverage. If this authorities and rail operators made higher use of channel tunnel capability, favoured locations of ultra-frequent flyers like Frankfurt, Geneva and Barcelona, all at the moment reachable with only one rail connection in Paris, may very well be much more accessible.
The majority of the expansion we see in up to date air journey is pushed by the posh journeys of ultra-frequent flyers. Their journeys are extra a product of the extraordinarily low price of journey – facilitated by its under-taxation – than they’re proof of a must journey (which is usually low, as evidenced by new analysis from the Dutch Authorities). A brand new tax mechanism would encourage ultra-frequent flyers to make extra sustainable selections and in the reduction of on their climate-wrecking journey habits: an ultra-frequent flyer levy.
Not like our earlier frequent flyer levy proposals, the ultra-frequent flyer levy wouldn’t be a ticket tax. We suggest introducing a brand new cost, payable by way of the private annual tax return, which applies solely to people flying six or extra instances within the earlier 12-month interval. The cost would encourage ultra-frequent flyers to plan the 12 months forward in a climate-friendly approach, and the place doable take into account flying much less or travelling by prepare.
This proposal emerged from authorized recommendation we obtained in relation to final 12 months’s report on A Frequent Flyer Levy in Europe, which recognized this type of levy as the best and quickest for presidency to implement. The levy additionally holds the benefit that it’s unequivocally targeted on probably the most extreme travellers, and presents much less monetary danger for people who’re confronted with a sudden and important must fly. For extra on NEF’s package deal of aviation tax coverage proposals, and detailed strategies, see our new report, Flying truthful: modernising the air transport tax system.
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