This week’s financial watchlist: CPI, dwelling gross sales and the Financial institution of Canada

Whereas markets largely count on the central financial institution to carry its coverage charge regular on Wednesday, some economists see sufficient draw back stress to justify a quarter-point charge minimize.

Recent inflation and housing knowledge early within the week might tip the steadiness—or reinforce the Financial institution’s cautious wait-and-see stance.

Tuesday

March inflation expected to tick increased

Statistics Canada will launch March’s shopper worth index (CPI) on Tuesday. February’s studying got here in at 2.6%, simply above expectations. Markets predict an extra slowdown, and any draw back shock might reinforce the case for charge cuts as early as June. The inflation launch will land only a day earlier than the Financial institution of Canada’s coverage determination.

The large query is whether or not the Financial institution’s most popular core measures present any signal of easing after almost a yr of persistent stress.

Residence gross sales knowledge to check spring momentum

On Tuesday, the Canadian Actual Property Affiliation will launch nationwide dwelling gross sales knowledge for March.

February noticed a ten.4% year-over-year decline in gross sales, whereas the typical dwelling worth rose 3.3%. March’s figures will present whether or not exercise remained subdued heading into the spring market, or if consumers started returning amid rising expectations for charge cuts.

Housing begins anticipated to rebound

Housing begins for March are additionally due Tuesday. Economists count on an increase to 241,400 annualized items, up from 229,000 in February. That might mark the primary month-to-month acquire since December.

Wednesday

Financial institution of Canada prone to maintain, however with a dovish lean

The Financial institution of Canada declares its newest charge determination on Wednesday. Markets are pricing in roughly 40% change of no change, with the in a single day goal charge remaining at 2.75%.

Scotiabank calls it a “nervous maintain,” noting robust circumstances on either side. The maintain argument rests on persistent core inflation, rising enterprise enter prices, and tariff-related worth pressures.

However current indicators of weakening progress—together with falling commodity costs, smooth confidence knowledge, and job losses—are fuelling expectations for a June minimize. The Financial institution’s Financial Coverage Report and Governor Macklem’s press convention shall be intently parsed for any shift in tone.

Thursday

Election debates add to the noise

Two federal leaders’ debates are additionally scheduled this week—one in French on Wednesday, one in English on Thursday.

With polling averages displaying the Liberals firmly within the lead, Scotiabank says it’s “Carney’s to lose.”

Friday

Markets shut for Good Friday

Markets shall be closed Friday, however by week’s finish, mortgage professionals and market watchers could have a a lot clearer image of whether or not inflation is cooling quick sufficient—and whether or not the Financial institution of Canada is able to transfer.

Week of April 14, 2025